Jason Thompson and Ryan Anderson: Who offers more to the roster long term?
The question posing towards Kings fans, and probably Kings management, is can Ryan Anderson offer more long term than Jason Thompson?
First up the stats of Jason Thompson advanced stat wise:
| Season | Age | Tm | G | MP | PER | TS% | eFG% | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | TOV% | USG% | ORtg | DRtg | OWS | DWS | WS | WS/48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-09 | 22 | SAC | 82 | 2303 | 13.9 | .540 | .497 | 11.8 | 19.0 | 15.4 | 14.8 | 19.3 | 106 | 114 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 2.7 | .057 |
| 2009-10 | 23 | SAC | 75 | 2357 | 14.6 | .518 | .473 | 10.8 | 20.3 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 19.6 | 106 | 109 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 4.0 | .081 |
| 2010-11 | 24 | SAC | 75 | 1748 | 13.6 | .533 | .507 | 9.1 | 20.7 | 14.8 | 13.7 | 17.9 | 106 | 109 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.9 | .079 |
| 2011-12 | 25 | SAC | 64 | 1657 | 16.4 | .558 | .535 | 10.5 | 19.3 | 14.7 | 11.5 | 15.5 | 115 | 109 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 3.9 | .114 |
| Career | 296 | 8065 | 14.5 | .535 | .498 | 10.6 | 19.8 | 15.1 | 13.5 | 18.3 | 108 | 110 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 13.5 | .080 |
Here is Ryan Anderson's advanced stats:
| Season | Age | Tm | G | MP | PER | TS% | eFG% | ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | TOV% | USG% | ORtg | DRtg | OWS | DWS | WS | WS/48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-09 | 20 | NJN | 66 | 1312 | 13.6 | .532 | .478 | 9.3 | 19.0 | 14.1 | 12.1 | 18.6 | 108 | 109 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | .090 |
| 2009-10 | 21 | ORL | 63 | 911 | 18.1 | .574 | .536 | 9.2 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 11.7 | 24.4 | 112 | 103 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3.1 | .161 |
| 2010-11 | 22 | ORL | 64 | 1424 | 19.0 | .591 | .558 | 10.8 | 18.1 | 14.5 | 7.8 | 20.3 | 122 | 101 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 6.4 | .217 |
| 2011-12 | 23 | ORL | 61 | 1964 | 21.2 | .589 | .548 | 13.0 | 14.7 | 13.8 | 6.4 | 21.2 | 124 | 105 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 8.9 | .219 |
| Career | 254 | 5611 | 18.4 | .575 | .535 | 11.0 | 16.8 | 13.9 | 8.9 | 20.9 | 118 | 105 | 13.9 | 7.0 | 20.9 | .179 |
Now, here is the Kings 4 Factor stats for last season:
| Offense Four Factors | Defense Four Factors | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PW | PL | MOV | SOS | SRS | ORtg | DRtg | Pace | eFG% | TOV% | ORB% | FT/FGA | eFG% | TOV% | DRB% | FT/FGA | Arena | Attendance | |
| Team | 21 | 45 | -5.68 | 0.73 | -4.95 | 103.8 | 109.8 | 94.7 | .472 | 13.0 | 29.1 | .197 | .515 | 13.9 | 70.5 | .199 | Power Balance Pavilion | 478,764 |
| Lg Rank | 27 | 27 | 27 | 2 | 25 | 21 | 29 | 1 | 27 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 13 | 29 | 10 | 28 | |
And for the Magic:
| Offense Four Factors | Defense Four Factors | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PW | PL | MOV | SOS | SRS | ORtg | DRtg | Pace | eFG% | TOV% | ORB% | FT/FGA | eFG% | TOV% | DRB% | FT/FGA | Arena | Attendance | |
| Team | 35 | 31 | 0.79 | -0.33 | 0.46 | 105.0 | 104.1 | 89.0 | .506 | 14.5 | 26.5 | .193 | .488 | 12.9 | 75.5 | .190 | Amway Center | 661,279 |
| Lg Rank | 15 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 29 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 23 | 14 | 25 | 2 | 7 | 11 | |
Esseentially, and while these things are hardly perfect in terms of total measure, one could conclude that Jason Thompson is slightly better than the team DRtg, and Anderson is slightly worse than the Magic's DRtg. What does this mean? Hardly anything at all in of itself.
Basketball Value has Adjusted Plus/Minus which can give some idea of how perhaps a player fits in chemistry wise compared to the rest of the team. These things are not perfect, but they are what they are. For Ryan Anderson:
| 2 Year Adj. +/- | 1 Year Adj. +/- | Unadjusted Simple On Court | Unadjusted Weighted Teams Off Court | Unadjusted Weighted Difference |
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | +/- | SE | +/- | SE | Min | Poss For | Poss Opp | Pts For | Pts Opp | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | Overall Rtg | Min | Poss For | Poss Opp | Pts For | Pts Opp | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | Overall Rtg | Overall Rtg On | Overall Rtg Off | Overall Rtg Net |
|||||
| ORL | 5.49 | 3.21 | 8.85 | 5.75 | 1,635.07 | 3068 | 3038 | 3381 | 3156 | 110.20 | 103.88 | 6.32 | 1,029.72 | 1886 | 1914 | 1774 | 1980 | 94.06 | 103.45 | -9.39 | 6.32 | -9.39 | 15.70 | |||||
Now Jason Thompson:
| 2 Year Adj. +/- | 1 Year Adj. +/- | Unadjusted Simple On Court | Unadjusted Weighted Teams Off Court | Unadjusted Weighted Difference |
||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teams | +/- | SE | +/- | SE | Min | Poss For | Poss Opp | Pts For | Pts Opp | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | Overall Rtg | Min | Poss For | Poss Opp | Pts For | Pts Opp | Off Rtg | Def Rtg | Overall Rtg | Overall Rtg On | Overall Rtg Off | Overall Rtg Net |
|||||
| SAC | 3.17 | 2.91 | 6.02 | 5.08 | 1,573.53 | 3112 | 3110 | 3299 | 3426 | 106.01 | 110.16 | -4.15 | 1,465.47 | 2896 | 2896 | 2907 | 3151 | 100.38 | 108.81 | -8.43 | -4.15 | -8.43 | 4.27 | |||||
Not surprisingly, Ryan Anderson fares better in this area as well. What is interesting that both Anderson and Thompson's value in the net category often stem from the lack of productivity from their replacements.
And of course, the 82games data on both players. Anderson first:
Player 48-Minute Production by Position
| .0 | .000 | .0 | 0% | 2880.0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | |
| 18.4 | .550 | 4.2 | 30% | 11.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | .6 | 3.5 | 23.9 | 21.1 | |
| 19.4 | .529 | 4.1 | 38% | 13.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4.9 | 24.6 | 24.1 |
Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production
| .0 | .000 | .0 | 0% | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | |
| 15.6 | .486 | 3.5 | 38% | 9.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | .7 | 4.0 | 17.8 | 14.1 | |
| 13.8 | .405 | 8.6 | 45% | 10.4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 18.3 | 15.7 |
Net 48-Minute Production by Position
| .0 | .000 | .0 | 0% | 2880.0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | |
| 2.9 | .064 | .7 | -8% | 1.5 | -1.2 | .8 | -.1 | .5 | 6.1 | 7.0 | |
| 5.6 | .123 | -4.5 | -7% | 3.4 | -1.5 | 1.9 | -1.1 | -1.1 | 6.3 | 8.4 |
And Jason Thompson:
Player 48-Minute Production by Position
| .0 | .000 | .0 | 0% | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | |
| 12.6 | .505 | 5.5 | 55% | 12.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 16.2 | 16.1 | |
| 13.8 | .671 | 4.2 | 64% | 12.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 20.6 | 21.2 |
Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production
| .0 | .000 | .0 | 0% | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | |
| 15.5 | .512 | 3.9 | 36% | 11.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 18.6 | 15.2 | |
| 14.0 | .481 | 4.7 | 45% | 15.9 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 16.9 | 14.7 |
Net 48-Minute Production by Position
| .0 | .000 | .0 | 0% | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | |
| -2.8 | -.007 | 1.5 | 19% | 1.5 | -.1 | .8 | -.9 | .9 | -2.4 | .9 | |
| -.2 | .190 | -.5 | 19% | -3.5 | -.5 | 1.7 | -.9 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 6.5 |
One thing that is clear: These are two quality young players whom one has benefitted playing with one of the best players in the league and quality veteran players, and another who is a quality player who has not beneffited from getting to play with one of the best players in the league and quality veteran players.
In otherwords, nothing you didn't know. That's the problem.
Thompson's strengths is his all around capability, even if he isn't a master of many things (outside of offensive rebounding and running the floor), and the fact that JT can play both C and PF defensively.
Anderson's strengths is his shooting overall (from 3 pt land and FT shooting), the spacing that provides, the not as terribly advertised rebounding (especially offensively) and defense, and that Anderson is a team player. The only negative here is that Anderson is not a SF, he's not a C, and he is a PF.
So the question then becomes: What is most important for this team? Do they need better defense and rebounding with JT? Do they need a guy who will get most of his points at the rim, and not from the perimeter as with Anderson.
Both are worthwhile players. The question then becomes: Is Ryan Anderson worth signing to forgo Jason Thompson?
Again, I think both are useful as players. I just think for a team that needs to upgrade it's defense, getting a player who is worse on defense than Thompson won't help. On the other hand, Ryan Anderson will dramatically upgrade the perimeter shooting and spacing the Kings need.
The only issue I have with the Kings is if they try to sign Anderson AND Thompson trying to make RA into a SF. If they choose Anderson, I'll understand and not agree. If they choose Thompson, it will be the right choice.
The only question that remains: Who does what when where and how?
Yeah, welcome to life as a Kings fan.
